650 Election simulatorSNAP ELECTION SCENARIO
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Step 1 of 4Candidate details

Create your candidate

Build a campaign, explore its election prospects and find promising constituencies.

An illustrative simulation using historical elections, not a forecast of the next election.

Age, gender, ethnicity, faith and birthplace are optional biographical details. They do not affect the score. Upbringing, education, career and political outlook contribute small gameplay adjustments.

Selected year: 1975

Build their background

The things a voter might recognise from their own life.

Include degree apprenticeships. Some careers also need specialist training or registration.

Why this matters

Education opens some career paths. Choose the background that fits your candidate.

Choose their politics

Choose a party, then the outlook your candidate brings to it.

Party they are running with

England / Britain-wide

Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland

Independent candidates can choose any political profile and stand anywhere in the UK.

MP totals checked 12 September 2026. Ordered within each group. Source: UK Parliament.

Choose a candidate profile

Pick the outlook that best describes your candidate.

Choose a constituency

Search by constituency name, or explore the map below.

Choose an area

United Kingdom

Select a nation or English region to zoom in.

Change campaign details
Snap election scenario

David Clarke in Bolton North East

Labour candidate

Modelled chance of winning

58%
Likely win

Illustrative model, not an election forecast.

Your candidate

Campaign readout

Your top 5 constituencies

Five strongest constituencies for this candidate
RankConstituencyWin chance
How this is calculated

This is a gameplay model with fixed design assumptions, not a calibrated forecast. It does not use live opinion polls.

  1. The starting vote shares blend 2024 constituency results (80%), 2019 notional results on the same boundaries (17%) and 2017 country-level results (3%). Missing historical data falls back to the latest local distribution. Scenario affiliation transfers are applied to the 2024 baseline; the historical result panel stays unchanged.
  2. Candidate adjustments combine political outlook (up to ±2 points), career (up to ±0.75), university (0 to +0.35) and shared upbringing region or nation (+0.75). Their sum is limited to −4 to +3 points before vote shares are normalised. These are game rules, not measured effects on voters.
  3. The estimated lead over the strongest rival is converted to a probability using a normal distribution with an assumed uncertainty scale of 11.5–15.5 percentage points. Displayed probabilities are rounded and capped at 1–99%.
  4. Independent candidates use the party associated with their chosen outlook as a reference, then receive 80% of that reference probability. This is a gameplay rule; their displayed margin describes the reference contest.

Historical data: House of Commons Library election results and Parliament notional results, as embedded in this file. Local political outlook is inferred from party support, not a voter survey. No validation against held-out elections is supplied with this model.

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